Abrupt climate change as a rate-dependent cascading tipping point

Abstract. We propose a conceptual model comprising cascade of tipping points as mechanism for past abrupt climate changes. In the model, changes in control parameter, which could instance be related to atmospheric circulation, induce sequential sea ice cover and ocean's meridional overturning circulation. The ocean component, represented by well-known Stommel box is shown display so-called rate-induced tipping. Here, an resurgence circulation induced before bifurcation point reached due fast rate change ice. Because multi-scale nature system, this type may also risk concerning future global warming. relatively short timescales involved make it challenging detect these from observations. However, with our we find that there can significant delay because system attracted stable manifold saddle during transition escaping towards undesired state. This opens up possibility early warning impending via detection changing linear stability vicinity saddle. To do so, estimating Jacobian noisy time series. useful generic precursor